Modelling Immunity Against Infectious Plague Bacteria in Great Gerbils in Kazakhstan: a Continuous-time Markov Chain Approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
Siyun Park, Kung-Sik Chan, Hildegunn Viljugrein, Larissa Nekrassova, Bakhtiyar Suleimenov, Vladimir S. Ageyev, Nikolay L. Klassovskiy, Sergey B. Pole and Nils Chr. Stenseth 1 Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, U.S.A. 2 Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway M. Aikimbaev’s Kazakh Scientic Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan.
منابع مشابه
Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.
We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests-samples from great gerbils being the main host of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-st...
متن کاملEpizootiologic Parameters for Plague in Kazakhstan
Reliable estimates are lacking of key epizootiologic parameters for plague caused by Yersinia pestis infection in its natural reservoirs. We report results of a 3-year longitudinal study of plague dynamics in populations of a maintenance host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), in 2 populations in Kazakhstan. Serologic results suggest a mid-summer peak in the abundance of infectious hosts and...
متن کاملSpatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan
AIM The spatial structure of a population can strongly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases, yet rarely is the underlying structure quantified. A case in point is plague, an infectious zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Plague dynamics within the Central Asian desert plague focus have been extensively modelled in recent years, but always with strong uniformity as...
متن کاملClimatically driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks.
In central Asia, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the main host for the bacterium Yersinia pestis, the cause of bubonic plague. In order to prevent plague outbreaks, monitoring of the great gerbil has been carried out in Kazakhstan since the late 1940s. We use the resulting data to demonstrate that climate forcing synchronizes the dynamics of gerbils over large geographical areas. As it i...
متن کاملDynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds.
Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemio...
متن کامل